Match preview
MLS action continues and here we are already at a late-October 2026 fixture, with a duel that promises to be thrilling between the New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC. This Saturday, October 17, 2026, the New York franchise welcomes the Canadian club to its home ground, aiming to confirm its status as favourite. The two teams know each other well, having regularly faced off in the Eastern Conference of Major League Soccer. For the New York Red Bulls, the challenge is clear: to pick up points at home and continue their positive momentum in front of their fans. Toronto FC, for their part, travel with the intention of causing an upset and coming away with a result. The competition is in full swing and every match counts in the race for the playoffs. This clash between the New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC therefore promises pace, intensity and, hopefully, goals. Our artificial intelligence has analysed this fixture in depth to bring you its predictions.
Recent form
On the New York Red Bulls' side, the momentum seems clearly favourable. Our model gives them a 66.1% probability of victory, a figure that reflects real confidence in their abilities, especially at home. This New York team has shown interesting consistency and their attack appears capable of making the difference against Toronto FC's defence. The expected goals (xG) data confirm this impression: with 2.64 expected goals for the New York Red Bulls against 1.3 for Toronto FC, it is clear that the Big Apple side should dominate proceedings offensively. Toronto FC, for their part, are not entirely written off by our AI, which gives them a 16.9% chance of victory. That is low, but it remains a credible scenario in a league as unpredictable as MLS. A draw is rated at 17.1%, suggesting a match where the gap could widen if the New York Red Bulls impose their rhythm. Toronto FC will therefore need to rely on solid organisation and maximum efficiency to counter this momentum. The current form, without us being able to detail precise results not provided, seems to lean clearly in favour of the New York Red Bulls, who approach this match with an assumed favourite status.
Our AI prediction
Our artificial intelligence has selected a precise prediction for this encounter: Under 3.5 goals, on the over/under market, with a confidence index of 50%. This choice may come as a surprise at first glance, because the New York Red Bulls' win probability is high (66.1%) and the combined expected goals (2.64 + 1.3 = 3.94) might suggest a high-scoring match. Yet the AI believes the total number of goals should stay below the 3.5 mark. Several factors justify this analysis. First, a home match for the New York Red Bulls against Toronto FC can turn into a tactical affair, where caution prevails. Second, the odds associated with this prediction are 1.64, which reflects a certain probability but also a moderate risk. The AI has therefore chosen caution by betting on a tight score, despite the attacking potential of the New York Red Bulls. Toronto FC, with 1.3 expected goals, could also find the back of the net, but not enough to blow the counter wide open. It should be noted that football, and particularly MLS, often springs surprises. That is why this prediction is presented with 50% confidence, meaning genuine uncertainty. Under 3.5 nevertheless remains the option retained by our algorithm after analysing the available data.
Conclusion
In summary, this New York Red Bulls versus Toronto FC looks like an interesting MLS match, with the New York team clearly favoured according to our artificial intelligence. The probabilities (66.1% for the New York Red Bulls, 17.1% for a draw, 16.9% for Toronto FC) and the expected goals (2.64 against 1.3) paint a scenario in which the hosts should dominate. The selected prediction, Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.64, reflects a cautious approach with 50% confidence. Remember that this prediction is generated by our AI, based on statistical models, and does not guarantee any result whatsoever. Sports betting involves risks, including that of losing your stake. We therefore advise you to bet responsibly, committing only sums you can afford to lose. Whether you support the New York Red Bulls or Toronto FC, above all enjoy the spectacle offered by MLS. Enjoy the match, everyone!