Match preview
The Europa Conference League returns this Thursday, October 22, 2026, and the fixture between FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split promises an evening full of stakes on the Swiss pitch. Two sides that look very different on paper meet for a European duel where every point will matter in the race for qualification. FC Thun, accustomed to continental battles in their own arena, intend to turn their stadium into a fortress and use home advantage to take an option on the rest of the competition. On the other side, HNK Hajduk Split, a historic club of Croatian football, arrive with the ambition to confirm their status and bring back a positive result from a tricky away trip. The stakes are clear for both teams: build confidence, make a statement and position themselves favourably in a group where a single point can make the difference in the final count. The atmosphere promises to be electric, between the passion of the local supporters and the determination of the visitors, and entertainment should be guaranteed.
Recent form
The momentum of both teams, as modelled by our analyses, draws a balance of power slightly in favour of the Swiss side. FC Thun show a win probability of 49.2%, a figure that reflects a certain consistency and an ability to exploit their strong spells. The draw is estimated at 26.7%, while a HNK Hajduk Split victory is credited with only 24.1%. These data suggest a FC Thun team that is solid in its organisation, able to control the tempo and to push forward efficiently. The expected goals confirm this trend: 1.46 for the hosts against 0.78 for the Croats, a significant gap that illustrates the difference in attacking potential between the two sides. HNK Hajduk Split, for their part, will have to deal with a perilous away trip and a more modest attacking output according to the projections. The current form, without needing to detail specific results, hints at a more consistent Swiss team and a Croatian club still looking for bearings away from home. This statistical reading obviously does not prejudge anything, but it sheds light on the likely shape of the encounter.
Our AI prediction
Our artificial intelligence has retained a clear prediction for this Europa Conference League clash: a FC Thun victory, designated under the code SH1 on the ht_1x2_2h market, with a confidence level of 43% and an associated odds of 1.76. This choice relies on several converging elements. First, the Swiss side's win probability, set at 49.2%, is far above that of HNK Hajduk Split (24.1%) and that of a draw (26.7%). Second, the gap in expected goals, 1.46 against 0.78, reinforces the idea of local dominance in the decisive areas. FC Thun is modelled as a team capable of converting its territorial superiority into concrete chances, while HNK Hajduk Split appear to have to settle for attacking scraps. The odds of 1.76 reflect an interesting risk-reward ratio, without being extravagant, which corresponds to a reasonable favourite rather than an outsider. It should be stressed, however, that the 43% confidence is not absolute: it reflects a probability, not a certainty. The SH1 prediction remains the most likely scenario according to our model, but European football always reserves surprises and HNK Hajduk Split have the arguments to challenge this hierarchy.
Conclusion
In summary, this FC Thun versus HNK Hajduk Split looks like a European duel that is balanced in terms of motivation but unbalanced in terms of statistical projections. The Europa Conference League offers both clubs an ideal stage to measure themselves, and the data from our model clearly lean towards the Swiss side, carried by a 49.2% win probability and higher expected goals. The SH1 prediction, with a confidence of 43% and odds of 1.76, is the most coherent reading of this encounter, without guaranteeing the outcome. We remind you that this prediction is generated by our artificial intelligence from the available data and cannot constitute a certainty. Sports betting involves risks, including the loss of the stake: bet responsibly, allocating to this match only a sum you can afford to lose, and keep in mind that the pleasure of the game must remain the priority.