Match preview
The Copa del Rey returns to center stage this Wednesday, November 18, 2026, with a fixture that smells of authentic Spanish football: Alcoyano hosts Mallorca on their own pitch. On one side, the club from Alcoy, accustomed to cup upsets and driven by a passionate crowd, dreams of toppling an opponent of greater stature. On the other, Mallorca, the Balearic side, arrives with the ambition of continuing their run in a competition that always delivers surprises. This duel between Alcoyano and Mallorca promises to be particularly balanced, as reflected in the probabilities calculated by our artificial intelligence: 38.9% for a home win, 23.8% for a draw and 37.2% for a Mallorca victory. The Copa del Rey is the ideal stage for this kind of confrontation, where theoretical hierarchy sometimes matters less than desire and atmosphere. The stakes are simple: a place in the next round and a moment of glory for the winner. Both teams know this match can define their season, and the Copa del Rey context adds an extra dose of pressure and excitement.
Recent form
To assess the momentum of this encounter, we must rely on the probabilistic data from our model, which paints a very tight balance of power. Alcoyano, at home, show a 38.9% win probability, slightly higher than Mallorca's 37.2%. This reflects a marginal advantage linked to the pitch and the environment, but certainly not overwhelming dominance. The draw, credited with 23.8%, remains a credible outcome and reminds us that the two sides could cancel each other out. The expected goals (xG) confirm this impression of balance: 1.57 for Alcoyano against 1.53 for Mallorca, a tiny gap suggesting both teams should create similar chances. In the Copa del Rey, current form and the ability to handle pressure are decisive. Alcoyano can rely on the energy of their crowd to overcome the difference in status, while Mallorca, with an almost identical xG, will need to be efficient to avoid letting the match slip away. Neither team starts as a clear favorite, and this uncertainty makes the game all the more interesting to analyze.
Our AI prediction
Our artificial intelligence has selected a prediction: a home win for Alcoyano on the 1x2 market, with 41% confidence. This choice may surprise, since the home win probability (38.9%) is only slightly higher than Mallorca's (37.2%). However, several elements justify this orientation. First, the home advantage and the support of the Alcoyano crowd, often decisive in Copa del Rey matches. Then, the expected goals (xG) give a slight attacking edge to Alcoyano (1.57 against 1.53), suggesting the home side could create a few more chances. The odds associated with this prediction are 1.9, offering an interesting risk-reward ratio for bettors willing to take the punt. Caution is still required: the 41% confidence indicates this prediction is not a certainty, and Mallorca have every card in hand to contest the outcome. The draw probability (23.8%) also reminds us the match could swing into a tighter scenario. Finally, the Copa del Rey context, with its knockout format, can favor the boldest teams. Alcoyano must therefore turn their theoretical advantage into on-field efficiency.
Conclusion
In summary, this Alcoyano vs Mallorca promises to be a tight and uncertain Copa del Rey match, with a slight edge for the home team according to our model. The probabilities (38.9% for Alcoyano, 23.8% for the draw, 37.2% for Mallorca) and the expected goals (1.57 against 1.53) outline a balanced duel, where the home factor could make the difference. Our prediction, a home win for Alcoyano at odds of 1.9 with 41% confidence, is an informed but non-guaranteed recommendation. It is essential to remember that sports betting carries risks and nothing is ever decided in advance. We advise you to bet responsibly, committing only sums you can afford to lose. This prediction was generated by our artificial intelligence, based on the available data, and should be considered a decision-making tool, not a certainty. Enjoy the match!